Why the UK Variant (or Kent Variant) being More Lethal might be a Good Thing

Firstly, I must make it clear that I don’t want more people to die.  And I do realise that some people already have caught the UK variant (or Kent variant) of Covid-19, and it being more lethal is difficult to see as a good thing – for them.  However, there is a sense in which the new variant being more lethal, as well as being more transmissible, is a good thing.

 

Part of the argument is that the UK variant being more transmissible is a really bad thing.  There are reports that the UK variant is in the order of 50% more transmissible, which means that after 10 rounds (where a round is where those now infected have infected those that they are going to infect) about 40 times as many people will die (as would have with the original variant).  If it is only 30% more lethal, and not more transmissible, then it will kill 30% more people, so 1.3 as many people will die.  Combine the effects together and it’s about 50 times as many.  Which, at first blush, is not good.

 

However, the increased lethality of the disease only comes into effect once you have managed to catch the disease.  It’s entirely possible that people are going to be far more scared by the notion that they are 30% more likely to die with the new variant, and 50% more likely to get it, than they are by the notion that they will transmit it to 50% more people.

 

This might open up a channel into the mind of an otherwise unreachable and selfish individualist – especially if they can wrap their mind around the fact that it is not 50% more likely that they will get Covid-19 with the new variant.  That’s just 50% more likely to get it from each person with Covid-19 that they interact with, if they are interacting with more people (which will be the effect if infection rates are not otherwise stemmed) then there will be a compounding effect.

 

In other words, the increased lethality of the UK variant might just be the motivation that is needed for selfish people to act selfishly and, through acting selfishly, protect us all.

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On the mathematics side, if the 30% lethality was enough to scare the non-cooperative types into better behaviour such that it reduces the replication number by 10%, then this could halve the number of deaths – or more – over the long term (assuming just the increase in transmissibility).